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Following events may affect USD:

• 14:30 – Building Permits
• 14:30 -Housing Starts
• 14:30 – Import Prices m/m
• 15:15 – Capacity Utilization Rate
• 15:15 – Industrial Production m/m
• 19:00 – Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
• 19:30 – FOMC Member Evans Speaks
• 20:00 – FOMC Meeting Minutes

Following events may affect GBP:

• 10:30 – MPC Meeting Minutes
• 12:00 – CBI Industrial Order Expectations

Following events may affect JPY:

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• 11:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
• 11:00 – ZEW Economic Sentiment
• 11:00 – Trade Balance

The following events may affect USD pairs:

• 14:30 – Empire State Manufacturing Index
• 15:00 – TIC Long-Term Purchases
• 19:00 – NAHB Housing Market Index

The following events may affect JPY pairs:

• 00:50 – Tertiary Industry Activity m/m

The following events may affect GBP pairs:

• 10:30 – CPI y/y
• 10:30 – Core CPI y/y
• 10:30 – DCLG HPI y/y
• 10:30 – RPI y/y
• 19:30 – MPC Member Besley Speaks

I have reduced the pairs I traded a lot since the beginning of my trading. The pair I like the most is EURUSD, also because I live in Europe and follow the news in TV and newspaper naturally. Another pair I like trading is GBPUSD.

And then there is GBPJPY. I have made some bad, bad experiences trading this pair. GBPJPY moves hundreds of pips without any significant retrace. If you don’t apply strict risk and money management, this could eat up your whole account in the blink of an eye.

Here’s a Point and Figure chart of GBPJPY, I used a reversal of 3 and box size of 200 pips. The British Pound has lost massive value against the Yen in the last months. From top to bottom, it’s 13,000 pips.

At this level there is some heavy support expected. I have also attached a 3×500 pips Point and Figure Chart and we see a nice double bottom pattern. The first bottom has been in 1995, so it’s quite some time a ago.

I will switch to lower box sizes and look out for some signals. My general mood is, that GBPJPY will fall even more, but maybe it finds some support at these levels. So I am not looking out for any mid or long term position, only daytrading.

Today I have a EURUSD Point and Figure Chart with a 3 x 50 setup. Nothing happened today because of the bank holiday in the USA, so I expect some bigger moves tomorrow. Especially if you take a look at the events that will come up tomorrow.

EURUSD has formed a spread quadruple bottom @1.2750, a break would indicate a sell signal, the inital stop loss can be set to 1.3100. As I said yesterday, support can be at levels 1.2600 and 1.2400. So If this support should break, I will use a tighter stop loss to back up any profits.

GBPUSD has fooled me today, but it’s been my own fault. Should have stayed away from the markets due to illiquidity. I will try to get a sell signal to short GBPUSD. At this Chart, 3×100, you can see a downward trend channel and I will sell rises and move the stop loss closer when we reach the bottom line of the trend channel.

• All day – Bank Holiday in the USA
• 15:40 – FOMC Member Duke Speaks
• 15:45 – ECB President Trichet Speaks

The following events may affect GBPUSD:

• 01:01 – Rightmove HPI m/m
• 15:00 – MPC Member Bean Speaks
• 15:40 – FOMC Member Duke Speaks

EURUSD

Current Point and Figure Chart of EURUSD with a 3×100 Setup:

A break of the tripple bottom at 1.2800 would generate a sell signal. We will see if this level will be broken by the next week. I will keep an eye on this level. Heavy support is expected @1.2600 and @1.2400.

GBPUSD

Current Point and Figure Chart of GBPUSD with a 3×100 Setup:

Should the price fall below the 1.4000  level, it would generate a basic sell signal. Expected support @1.3600. If the price should rise above the 1.5100 level, that could indicate a break of the current down trend. But at the moment I am expecting more downward momentum.

Trading next week

I will watch the price action around the mentioned levels very closely and scalp the market with a 3×10 Point and Figure setup. As we are still in a downward motion, I will look out for opportunities to short the pairs to be on the right side of the market – “the trend is your friend”.

Should the price break the support levels, I will also add a smaller mid to long term position with a broader initial stop.